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2023 US Private Equity Outlooks:
- PE-led take-privates will migrate to the middle markets.
- Aggregate PE fund returns will underperform public equity benchmarks as private market valuations continue to get marked down.
- Sponsor-to-sponsor exits will take up a record portion of US PE exits.
- The exit-to-investment ratio will reach a more than 15-year low.
- US PE investment in skilled care and behavioral health providers will bounce back to a record high of more than 40 deals, excluding add-ons.
- PE will dip below its historic share of private market fundraising, driven by demand for income over growth by discretionary investors.
- Direct lenders will continue to dominate LBO debt markets, eventually giving way to a recovery in bank-led lending later in the year.